Overview
- Singapore is a highly trade‑exposed economy; CPI data helps track cost‑of-living pressures, imported inflation, and domestic price dynamics.
- The CPI data is often broken into:
- “All Items” CPI (headline inflation) — overall consumer price change.
- “Core” CPI / core inflation — excludes private transport and accommodation; used to gauge underlying inflation trends.
- Observing the period 2023–2025 reveals a shift from historically elevated inflation toward moderation, with underlying inflation becoming more stable.
Key CPI Data Points & Trend Summary
Here is a snapshot of relevant data and trends between 2023 and 2025:
| Period / Year | CPI‑All Items (Headline) / Annual % | Core CPI (Annual %) / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 (full‑year / average) | Headline inflation averaged ~ 4.5 | Core inflation averaged ~ 4.2% |
| December 2024 | Headline: 1.6% y‑o‑y | Core: 1.8% y‑o‑y — lowest since Nov 2021 |
| 2024 (full‑year) | Headline averaged 2.4% | Core averaged 2.7% |
| March 2025 | Headline: 0.9% y‑o‑y (unchanged from Feb) | Core: 0.5% y‑o‑y; m‑o‑m core CPI declined 0.1% |
| April 2025 | Headline: 0.9% y‑o‑y (same as March) | Core: 0.7% y‑o‑y; m‑o‑m core CPI |
| June 2025 | Headline: 0.8% y‑o‑y (same as May) | Core: 0.6% y‑o‑y (unchanged from May); m‑o‑m core CPI -0. |
Key takeaways from the data:
- Inflation softened significantly from 2023 through 2024, with headline CPI falling from ~4.8% to ~2.4% and core CPI similarly declining.
- In 2025, inflation continued to ease further: by April–June, both headline and core inflation rates were under 1%.
- Core inflation remained especially subdued in early 2025, reflecting weaker domestic price pressure in many core components like services, retail, and “other goods.” (Ministry of Trade and Industry)
What’s Behind the Trend: Drivers of the CPI Dynamics
1. Cooling of global imported inflation & commodity prices
- Singapore imports many goods and raw materials. As global inflation cooled and oil/commodity prices stabilized or fell, pressure on Singapore’s imported inflation diminished. This helps explain the moderation in CPI-All Items and core CPI in 2024–2025.
2. Easing in domestic services and non‑volatile goods inflation
- Core CPI deceleration suggests that domestic factors — such as services (e.g. retail, utilities), food, and other non-transport, non-accommodation categories — saw muted price growth through 2024 into 2025.
- Lower inflation in core components helps reduce cost-of-living pressure and stabilizes household budgets.
3. Lingering—but falling—transport & accommodation price pressure
- While core CPI excludes private transport and accommodation, the headline CPI—especially in some months—was still influenced by fluctuations in those categories. For example, March 2025 saw headline CPI at 0.9%, driven partly by “higher private transport inflation offsetting falls elsewhere.”
4. Policy influence and economic slowdown/adjustment
- As inflation cooled, the authorities signalled moderation: the easing in 2024–2025 allowed for some room for policy adjustment.
- Slower global demand and trade growth—alongside stabilizing commodity markets—likely contributed to dampened price pressure.
Interpretation: What the Trends Reveal About Singapore’s Economy
– Inflation under control, but cost-of-living still relevant
The significant drop in inflation from 2023 to 2025 indicates that Singapore’s economy has navigated the high‑inflation period well. For households and consumers, lower inflation (especially in core items) helps ease cost-of-living concerns.
However, even with headline CPI under 1% in parts of 2025, persistent monthly/quarterly fluctuations (e.g. transport or accommodation costs) suggest vigilance is still warranted.
– Stability supports monetary and fiscal flexibility
More stable and lower inflation gives policy‑makers breathing room. It allows domestic demand to recover without the drag of persistent high inflation, and reduces pressure on wages and interest rates.
That said, policymakers must balance between supporting growth (especially given global uncertainties) and guarding against abrupt price swings — particularly if global commodity markets or imported inflation shift again.
– Implications for businesses and cost planning
Companies—especially those importing inputs or reliant on imported goods—may find lower cost pressures more manageable. Predictable inflation reduces uncertainty in pricing, wage negotiations, and cost-of-living adjustments.
But volatility remains a risk, especially for sectors sensitive to global commodity prices, energy, or transport costs.
– Reflects somewhat global cycle: from post‑pandemic inflation to normalization
Much of the inflation surge in 2022–2023 was global, driven by supply‑chain disruptions, elevated energy and commodity prices, and recovering demand after COVID‑19. Singapore was not immune. The data from 2024 onward shows a reversion toward more stable price growth — akin to pre‑pandemic norms.
What to Watch — Risks & Factors That Could Alter the Trend
- Global commodity & energy prices: A resurgence in oil, gas, or food commodity prices would increase imported inflation, affecting CPI.
- Global supply chain disruptions or trade tensions: Could raise costs for imported inputs, pushing up prices domestically.
- Domestic demand rebound or wage growth: If consumer demand strengthens, or wages rise significantly, this could feed into services and non‑tradable inflation.
- External shocks (climate, geopolitics): E.g. crises affecting shipping, energy, or global demand may ripple through import & export prices, thereby affecting CPI in Singapore.
- Housing/Accommodation & transport costs: Even small upticks in these volatile components can meaningfully affect headline CPI, as previously seen.
Recent Inflation Expectations & Outlook
- According to a 2025 survey, one‑year ahead headline inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.8% (as of March 2025), compared to earlier surveys.
- Meanwhile, professional forecaster projections (from Monetary Authority of Singapore / MAS) for 2025 suggest headline CPI to average around 1.7%, and core inflation around 1.5%.
- Given current trends, inflation appears likely to remain modest through 2025, unless disrupted by external price shocks or domestic demand surges.
Conclusion
Between 2023 and 2025, Singapore has seen a marked easing of inflationary pressures as measured by CPI — headline inflation dropped from ~4.8% to under 1%, and core inflation fell more sharply. This shift reflects cooling global commodity prices, easing imported inflation, and stable domestic price dynamics.
For households, the easing inflation brings relief on cost-of-living fronts. For policymakers and businesses, the stability offers a more predictable environment for planning, investment, and wages. Still, risks remain — especially from external commodity price swings, supply‑chain disruptions, and volatile components like transport and accommodation.
Overall, the recent CPI trends suggest that Singapore’s economy is navigating a transition from post‑pandemic price pressures toward more stable, lower-inflation conditions — but continued vigilance and adaptive policy will matter to sustain this stability.
